[savinggreen]

Many people were disappointed that the Clean Air Act announced by the Canadian Conservative Government had such long term goals.  Targets were largely based on 2025 and 2050, with one goal set for 2011.  So about that 2011 target...Is it really a target if we've already surpassed it? 

The Conservatives noted that they will abandon the current voluntary fuel consumption rating goals for manufacturers (the Company Average Fuel Consumption or CAFC), in favour of a new regulation that will be aligned with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations (the Corporate Average Fuel Economy or CAFE).  Sounds like a good concept.  We've all seen The Corporation; we know that manufacturers won't abide by voluntary commitments, right?  Not so in the case of fuel consumption ratings.  In fact, the auto industry has not only met, but has surpassed these voluntary fuel economy goals since 1978.  There goes the first myth:  that voluntary goals do not work.

Still, aligning with the EPA - that's an improvement, right?  Not exactly.  In the case of cars, the Canadian and US standards have been identical since 1990:  8.6 L/100km as a fleet average (the US CAFE standard is 27.5 miles/gallon, which converts to 8.6 L/100km).  In fact, Canada's average fleet fuel consumption has been less than 8 L/100km since 1997 (remember that in metric fuel economy, smaller is better).  So there goes myth number two: that aligning with the US regulations is setting a higher standard.

I should note that on the light truck side of things, it is possible that some reduction of emissions will occur between now and 2011.  This is because the EPA have recently tabled an amendment to the light truck fuel economy regulation that will require manufacturers to meet a range of standards, depending on vehicle size.  The overall standard will depend on the overall fleet composition, but what is certain is that even all vehicles in this category will have to be somewhere between 11.0 L/100km (21.3 mpg) and 8.3 L/100km (28.4 mpg). 

Does this mean that if manufacturers improve their light truck emissions that we will have the new Clean Air Act to thank?  Not so much.  The Canadian and US auto industries are very strongly linked.  If manufacturers have to tinker with their vehicles for the US market, they will do so for Canada.  What this really means is that this was a missed opportunity:  had we made our targets more strict than the current US standard, then it would actually have been possible for our regulations to have pushed into the US.  Either that or the manufacturers would move to sell a higher proportion of their smaller vehicles (and thus more fuel efficient) in Canada. 

To summarize:  likelihood that the Tory government will meet the only short term goal in the Clean Air Act:  99.99%
Likely emissions reduced in meeting this goal:  0


A bit of background info:
Both the CAFC and CAFE have separate ratings for passenger cars and light duty vehicles (pickup trucks, SUVs). 
On the car side, the auto industry has exceeded the CAFC voluntary goal in each year since 1978, by an average of 8%. 
Ratings for light trucks were introduced for the 1980 model year, and since then the target was exceeded in all but two years (1995 and 1996), and those misses were by less than 1%. 

In terms of light trucks, the US standard is slightly more strict than the Canadian one.  The Canadian "goal" is currently 11.4 L/100km, while the US standard is 10.9 L/100km (21.6 mpg).  Currently the Canadian fleet average is 10.6 L/100km. 

The US is phasing in a new approach to the light truck standard, in which the new fuel economy ratings will be based on the size of the vehicle.  I was initially VERY skeptical about this approach, but upon reading the regulation , I see that it is not such a bad approach, in that even the biggest light trucks will have to meet a standard of 11.0 L/100km (21.3 mpg), and the smallest ones (likely compact SUVs) will have standards that exceed car standards:  8.3 L/100km (28.4 mpg). 

[Raptor235]

that's a shame... our government needs to do more